Why Canadian Cannabis Stocks Are On Sale

Canadian cannabis producers, the darlings of the stock market in 2016 and 2017, are off to a rough start in 2018, with the Canadian Cannabis LP Index down 12.7% year-to-date despite a surge in early January to all-time highs. A longer-term view puts the decline into perspective as a correction of a very strong advance since mid-2016:


Canadian Cannabis LP Index

Since the peak of 1438.87 on January 9th, the index, now at 877.46, has contracted 39%. Despite the correction, prices have still advanced 83% since late October, when Constellation Brands announced its investment into Canopy Growth, sparking interest from investors across the sector who realized that this transaction had profound implications for the entire industry. Another cross-industry investment was announced in March, with U.S.-based tobacco company Alliance One International acquiring a 75% stake in Canadian LP Canada’s Island Garden as well as making additional investments.

There are now 29 publicly traded Canadian cannabis producers, a number that continues to increase as private licensed producers (LPs) migrate to the public market, with more expected to join the group. The top four companies in terms of sales include Aphria, Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth and MedReleaf, and the performance among the group has differed greatly in 2018, though all have declined:


Top 4 Canadian cannabis stocks year-to-date returns.

Why are the stocks falling?

In early February, when stocks in general were under intense pressure, I addressed a major challenge for the Canadian LPs, suggesting that the weakness in the stocks had been compounded by early-in-the-year ETF activity and, more significantly, a barrage of supply, as 14 LPs raised over C$1 billion. I have updated the table I shared, and, while this supply remains an overhang, there has been only one large deal subsequently, with Cronos Group raising C$100 million in March:


Canadian public company LP capital raises

Several factors have contributed to the recent decline, most of which are specific to the sector. First, legalization had been expected to take place in July, but the implementation is likely to be closer to the beginning of September. Second, and perhaps more concerning, legalization, which was thought to be a “done deal”, came into question when the Canadian Senate considered the Second Reading in March. The deliberations were heated, but, in the end, C-45, the Cannabis Act, was moved to committee and will face a final vote on June 7. Perhaps most importantly, preliminary packaging guidelines from Health Canada, released in March, were unfavorable to the industry. Aurora chief corporate officer Cam Battley suggested to Bloomberg that “the federal government is risking a policy fail.” Restrictive packaging will make it more difficult for the LPs to compete with the black market.

Following the decline in prices, financial media has been very negative on the sector. Last week’s cover story from Barron’s discussed a pending supply glut and very high valuations. Several anonymous contributors at Seeking Alpha have shared very negative views on the largest companies in the sector as well.

The worst performer in 2018 among the large LPs has been Aphria, which has been impacted by concerns over its acquisition of Nuuvera, now known as Aphria International, with the stock down almost 46%. Market participants have struggled to understand the transaction thus far, and some have criticized the company for not disclosing prior investments made by officers and directors into Nuuvera. It’s also worth noting that Aphria’s stock was boosted in December when it announced a potential supply agreement with Shoppers Drug Mart that appeared to be somewhat exclusive. Subsequently, four other LPs also announced similar deals. Aphria will be reporting its FY18-Q3 in mid-April and hosting a conference call.

Outside of the cannabis-specific factors, it’s worth noting that the overall markets have returned to recent lows. Canadian stocks, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite Index, have declined 5.6% thus far in 2018. Another technical issue is that many investors may be selling shares to pay for taxes on gains in 2017.


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